Mark Buehrle: now with more groundouts!

Mark Buehrle put up another strong start for the Blue Jays today, (7 IP, 4H, 2 ER, 6/2 K/BB) and though he didn't get the win, it's another positive sign that he's getting back on track after a tough start.

His improving ERA and K/BB are easy to notice, but what you may have missed is that he now hasn't given up a home run in three straight starts. This isn't just luck; he's done it by getting more ground outs. He's gotten more ground outs than air outs in each of those three starts (11/5 today) after being on the wrong side of that ledger for the three preceding starts, where he allowed 8 HR in 18 innings.

Buehrle's been a pitch-to-contact guy for some time, and has always given up a fair number of home runs. As his stuff ages, he's going to have to keep the ball down to stay out of trouble, and it looks like he's been able to do that lately. Getting ground outs will speed up his innings and allow him to be the innings-eater the team needs (especially after days like yesterday, where Ramon Ortiz got knocked out in the third inning). He'll likely be facing Atlanta's high-power offence on Monday so he'll definitely want to make sure he keeps the ball on the ground.

Jose Bautista is batting 2nd, and that's good news

Batting your best hitter second in the lineup has been a pet theory among sabermetricians for a number of years, but it's getting increasing interest around baseball this year, and the Blue Jays are joining the bandwagon, moving Jose Bautista into the second spot in their batting order. Does it make sense? Or is Jose's power wasted there?

The injury to Jose Reyes robbed the Jays of a natural leadoff man, and they've struggled to find an appropriate fill-in. Emilio Bonifacio and Rajai Davis got long looks there, as their speed looks good atop the order. Also getting time were guys like Brett Lawrie and Munenori Kawasaki. That whole group was a failure, though; your leadoff hitter must be able to get on base, and all those players feature below-average OBPs. The natural solution, I felt, was Melky Cabrera, and indeed the Jays have finally put him there. Melky had been batting 2nd or 5th most of April, as the Jays really wanted to mix his switch-hitting abilities among all the right-handed power bats. Now that Adam Lind has turned it on, they've been able to use Melky to lead off. He's not especially fast - indeed, he remains in the leadoff spot right now despite hamstring issues - but he's one of the team's best OBP guys.

When your lineup features as much power as the Jays have (it's not just Bautista and Edwin Encarnacaion; JP Arencibia and Colby Rasmus are piling up HRs too), you need to get as many guys on base in front of them as possible. Sending Davis and Bonifacio up there to make outs did nothing to set the table for them - it just burned outs and stopped the offence before it could get started.

Further, batting Melky 5th was similarly wasteful. Bautista and Encarnacion are two of the team's better OBP guys. They'll often get on via a walk, and if they're on base that often, you need a guy with some power to bring them in. Arencibia and Rasmus are perfectly suited to do that; their OBP isn't great, but they can cash in men on base. Melky, on the other hand, has a good chance to hit a single, but can't drive in runners en masse.

So with Melky in the leadoff spot, who bats second? As I've said above, the Jays have plenty of power guys but few OBP men. In that regard, Bautista is a perfect solution. With Edwin hitting 3rd and Arencibia 4th, the Jays have enough power in the middle of the lineup that Bautista can be deployed elsewhere.

A further advantage is that Bautista is less likely to come to the plate with 2 out. Batting 3rd - especially behind Davis and Bonifacio - teams could pitch around him, knowing that a walk with 2 out was a lesser risk. With none or one out, walking Bautista is a greater risk, because the Jays will have more chances to drive him in. So teams have to pitch to him, and he's able to get fastballs that can become home runs. How much better is Jose with less than 2 outs? His career BA/OBP/SLG splits:

• none out: .279/.366/.559
• one out: .250/.358/.459
• two out: .229/.363/.443

The difference is undeniable. With two out, Jose gets a lot of walks, but doesn't get pitches to hit. The fewer outs, the more pressure teams face to pitch to him. You could easily make an argument, based on these splits, that Jose should be leading off. Yes, he'd be hitting a lot of solo home runs, but he'll do that anyway (just with 2 outs) if the Jays can't put decent OBP men on in front of him. Batting him 2nd behind Cabrera is a good compromise, and will continue to help the Jays. Bravo to John Gibbons for being willing to work outside the conventional wisdom.

Follow Rory Johnston (@rnfjohnston) on twitter: twitter.com/rnfjohnston

Should the Jays keep a 4-man rotation down the stretch?

Cito's bold decision to start Burnett and Litsch today on 3 day's rest has set the stage for a fascinating day of baseball. After a terrific start, AJ Burnett has just been pulled with two on, none out and an 8-0 lead in the seventh inning.

I was expecting Cito to pull AJ after six innings and 90 pitches. On 3 days' rest, Burnett was expected to have a shorter leash; furthermore, the presence of September callups Scott Richmond and John Parrish gave Cito the option to pull his starter and not eat into his better bullpen arms which he may need for tonight's game.

Instead, Cito sent AJ out to start the seventh, perhaps intending to allow him a chance to get to an apparent 100-pitch target. It doesn't make sense; AJ is in line for the win and has three more starts left this year. It may seem like an inconsequential decision, but consider this:

The Jays have already affirmed plans to send Litsch tonight, Doc tomorrow and after Monday's day off, Marcum Tuesday vs. Baltimore. By that time, the Jays will have a much better picture of where they stand in the Wild Card race. Three games with Boston and one with Baltimore will be over, and Boston will have played two games against the Rays.

If the Jays can win tonight against Bartolo Colon and Doc can outpitch Lester tomorrow, the Jays will be sitting 4.5 games back. If Kazmir can beat the fading-fast Dice-K Monday, they're at 4.0 back.

The Jays have favourable opposition coming up in the Baltimore Orioles next week, with Chris Waters, Zach Jackson, and one of Garrett Olson and Dan Cabrera. After Kazmir, the Red Sox can expect Andy Sonnanstine and possibly David Price. With Beckett and Wakefield following Dice-K, they seem about even odds for the series, while the Jays have a legit shot at a sweep of the Orioles.

So is a 4-man rotation worth trying? Here's the probable starter usage under both 4- and 5-man rotations down the stretch, starting tomorrow:

4-man 5-man opponent

Sun 14 Halladay Halladay Bos
Mon 15 (off) (off)
Tues 16 Marcum Marcum Bal
Weds 17 Burnett Purcey Bal
Thurs 18 Purcey/Litsch Burnett Bal
Fri 19 Halladay Halladay Bos
Sat 20 Marcum Litsch Bos
Sun 21 Burnett Marcum Bos
Mon 22 (off) (off)
Tues 23 Halladay Burnett NYY
Wed 24 Marcum Halladay NYY
Thurs 25 Burnett Purcey NYY
Fri 26 Purcey/Litsch Marcum Bal
Sat 27 Halladay Litsch Bal
Sun 28 Marcum Burnett Bal

You've just traded two Jesse Litsch start for one by Halladay and one by Marcum, and now have Burnett ready for the playoff if needed (Halladay pitches the playoff if you run a 5-man). You also add Litsch to the pen.

I'm not sure that's enough to justify the move. I'd rather have everyone on top form. If needed, you can send Halladay and Burnett on 3 days' rest on the final two days. I'd like to get rid of that Jesse Litsch start next weekend against Boston, though we'll see how he does tonight before I decide how I feel about that one.

Tim Wakefield

The Jays looked pretty poor up against Wake tonight.

"Why are Mench and Wilkerson playing tonight?" my brother protested. My response was that the managerial habit is to play veterans against the knuckleballer. Does experience make you any better against him? Who knows.

The fact is, when Wake is on, he's as dominant as the better fastball pitchers, and a red-hot Jays team that has been taking down conventional pitchers like Gavin Floyd is not necessarily going to be any good against Wake.