Insurance A-Fraud?

Fox's Ken Rosenthal reported this morning that the Yankees might be hoping that they can get out from under Alex Rodriguez' contract with an insurance payout. On its face, it's a fair point; they took out a sizeable insurance policy on the contract in case A-Rod suffered a career-ending injury. The plan, as Rosenthal explains, would be to find a doctor willing to call Rodriguez' hip injury "career-ending", file some paperwork, and presto, insurance payout covers 85 percent of the $114 million remaining on the deal.

Simple? Not so much. Ken probably wouldn't be surprised to hear that insurance companies are reluctant to pay out claims if they can avoid it. In particular, they (rightly) are especially reluctant to pay out where there's a whiff of fraud. You may have also heard that Alex Rodriguez doesn't have the best reputation as a truth-teller.

Furthermore, the fact that this strategy is being publicly discussed (Rosenthal reports that a 'high-ranking executive explained the same plan to him) will raise the insurer's suspicions even more. You can bet that they wouldn't simply take the opinion of a single doctor cherry-picked by Rodriguez and the Yankees.

Here's what would actually happen: the claim would get denied, and the Yankees and the insurer would end up in court. The insurer would insist on a second opinion, and demand the reports of every other doctor that checked on Rodriguez. If A-Rod had 'shopped around' until he got a favourable opinion, it's game over. The insurer could point to the conflicting opinions and show that Rodriguez can play. If that fails, they might still be able to insist that 'their' doctor examine hime, or they could send up a slew of expert witnesses to say he should be playing, or that the Yankees failed to mitigate his injuries, or that they allowed him to use PEDs, perhaps voiding the policy because of increased injury risks and so on...

You get the picture. You can't just fill out a form and magically get an insurance payout. Any insurance claim that approaches $100m - whether it's for a baseball contract or a construction project - will not be handled the same way as a car insurance claim for a fender-bender. There's too much money at stake, and any insurance company will fight tooth and nail to avoid paying out illegitimate claims. Unless his injury is worse than reported, you can bet on A-Rod being on the field in 2014.

Follow sports law and business nerd Rory Johnston (@rnfjohnston) on twitter: twitter.com/rnfjohnston

Power plays up 38% in NHL's opening weekend, but we've seen this before

Through two days and 17 games, the 2013 NHL season has seen a lot of disorganization and choppy game play (and I'm not just referring to NHL's Gamecentre, which has led to numerous reports of bad streaming quality and unexpected blackouts). It's apparent that the short training camp has meant that teams aren't fully back in game shape, both in terms of fitness and familiarity. Of particular note is that penalties are up significantly through the first two days: we've seen an average of 9.1 power plays per game, which is a 38% increase over last season's average of 6.6.

Unsurprisingly, this has also coincided with an increase in scoring overall: goals are up 9%. So far in 2013, we're getting 5.79 goals per game compared to last year's 5.32.

Is this indicative of anything? Well, yes - we've seen much tighter calls on hooking in particular, with refs blowing the whistle on even a slight tap into the hands. There are a few factors at work here; players are a little undisciplined early, making lazy plays, and many are not at a mid-season fitness level yet. Playing in the AHL or the Swiss league is certainly helpful, but there's no way those leagues can replicate the speed they're now dealing with in NHL play. What's more, it seems the referees are erring on the side of making the call to 'set the tone' early on.

Will it last? Definitely not. Last season's opening weekend featured 8.6 power plays per game, and it seems like an opening week penalty-fest has become standard in the NHL. The referees seem to have been given the usual edict to 'call it tight' for the first few games. Things should return to normal in short order.

Waiving Tim Connolly is Shooting the Hostage

Harry: "Alright, pop quiz: The airport. Gunman with one hostage, he's using her for cover, he's almost to the plane. You're a hundred feet away. (Long pause) Jack?"
Jack: "Shoot the hostage.""
Harry: "What?"
Jack: "Take her out of the equation. Go for the good wound and he can't get to the plane with her. Clear shot"
Harry: "You are deeply nuts, you know that? 'Shoot the hostage'... jeez..."

In negotiations for the Roberto Luongo, Mike Gillis has been holding firm: he wants real value, and his rumoured recent asking price was along the lines of Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, and a 2nd-round pick. Dave Nonis thus far hasn't seemed interested in giving up that much; Gillis has insisted he won't trade Luongo unless he gets the right return.

It was announced this morning that the Leafs will be waiving Tim Connolly just a day after sending Matthew Lombardi to the Coyotes in the first 'retained salary' trade under the new CBA. By saying goodbye to two candidates for centre spots, Nonis has made it impossible to trade Bozak and Kadri. The move has changed the negotiation: now, that trade structure is off the table. Nonis has effectively 'shot the hostage'; it may be that he had a different package in mind (maybe he would rather move a winger? MacArthur?). Now, that's the only option available.

Nonis may have wanted to call Gillis' bluff that other teams would offer more. Nonis has altered the negotiation by eliminating some of his own options - he shot the hostage. Now that Bozak and Kadri have become genuinely unavailable, Gillis may have negotiate on Nonis' terms.

Why someone - anyone - should sign Michael Del Zotto to an offer sheet

As we wait for the NHLPA to announce ratification of the Memorandum of Understanding, news is coming out of New York that the Rangers' RFA Michael Del Zotto may not get signed before training camp.

Reportedly, the two sides are talking about a 2-year deal and are about half a million dollars apart. The Rangers are looking to pay about $2.4m or maybe less; Del Zotto is apparently asking for as much as $3m.

Last season, Del Zotto was a valuable powerplay fixture, putting up 41 points in 77 games, and was was third on the team in ice time (behind Dan Girardi and Ryan McDonagh). This isn't a guy the Rangers should be nickel-and-diming with; he's an important part of the team and a valuable player. What's more, he's just 22 years old.

It seems like this would be a prime chance for any number of NHL teams (Detroit? Toronto? the Kings?) to add a top-four defenceman at a reasonable price. Del Zotto might jump at an offer sheet like the one Niklas Hjalmarsson signed in 2010 (4 years, $14m) as he's clearly worth more than $2.5 million a year.

We are, of course, yet to see any finalized CBA details but under the previous deal, such an offer (if signed) would cost a first-, second- and third-round pick. Significant, yes, but if you're a playoff team (and we can assume Detroit certainly is), that's a late first-rounder. If you wanted to trade for Del Zotto, I doubt you could get him for those three picks. It would be a sensible move to make.

Even if the Rangers match the offer sheet, you can at least screw up the budget of a powerhouse rival. While that has less value to Detroit or LA, the Leafs might be happy to knock the Rangers down a notch. Recall the aftermath of the Hjalmarsson offer sheet: the Blackhawks couldn't fix their cap situation, so had to say goodbye to Antti Niemi and had to go with an unproven Corey Crawford, who has had mixed results since.

The team that might be most interested in screwing the Rangers, actually, might be the Penguins. The Pens have abundant cap space and could use another defender (though they would probably prefer more of a shutdown guy), as their third pairing going into camp looks to be Ben Lovejoy and Derek Engelland. Their depth beyond that isn't substantial if there's an injury.

GMs may be gun-shy about dropping an offer sheet at this stage of the season, but this is one of those situations where it may be fully warranted. The Rangers, meanwhile, would do well to stop dithering around and meet Del Zotto's demands before it's too late.