Bruce Dowbiggin over at the Globe and Mail has been voicing concerns lately that Rogers is underpaying the Blue Jays for their TV rights, restricting the cash the team has available for payroll. Publicly, the team has been saying that they simply don't see good value available in the FA market, and maybe they're right. The last time the Jays went into the FA market, they got a broken BJ Ryan and were left hanging when AJ Burnett opted out of his contract.
This year, the rumbling was that the Jays might be a player for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, but the Jays grumbled about the prices being too high, instead deciding to stick with some combination of Lind and Encarnacion at first. Granted, those are talented players, but there was also talk that the Jays would be able to clear one of Lind or Snider out in a trade.
But was it all just a smokescreen? Was Anthopolous simply letting everyone think he had money to spend when Rogers has told him that he needs to hold his cash? We heard that the Jays would be a player for Yu Darvish - but when asked after he went to Texas, Anthopolous wouldn't comment on whether the Jays had bid. Had he been told not to, or to keep any bid low?
I'm not sure, and it might be out of line to suggest as much. Looking at AA's moves, it may well be that he thought it didn't make sense to sign long deals for Fielder or Pujols. If Bautista, Lawrie and Escobar repeat their performance, and Lind and Colby Rasmus have bounce-back years, maybe the lineup IS good enough. Keep in mind that Kelly Johnson, Arencibia, and the LF spot are likely to be at least useful. There's enough talent in the lineup that a star first baseman might have blown out the budget too much long-term. AA may have a hope that he can maneuver to get Votto instead - either by trade or in free agency - and not have to pay him a premium to come north. At this point, we have no idea whether Fielder or Pujols were given offers by the Jays, or whether they would have wanted more cash to move to Toronto.
There may be all sorts of other reasons - tax, accounting or otherwise - why Rogers decided not to make a larger TV payment to the team. They may have wanted to avoid letting fans know the profitability of the team, so as to avoid having to deal with inflated expectations from both fans and potential signees.
It would be nice to see one more real SP on the roster, but otherwise, I'm OK with where the Jays are right now. Anthopolous has made enough good moves that I'd give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Friday, August 5, 2011
Trade Ricky Romero
It's time for the Jays to trade Ricky Romero. Well, not now, because we're past the non-waiver trade deadline. But at the end of the season, the Jays should ship him out, ideally for another young starter.
Ricky's strikeout-to-walk rate in the past two years has been a hair over 2:1. That's solid, but Ricky has been gaining a reputation as one of the AL's elite. This season, he's had an ERA under 3 much of the time and has put up a lot of innings. Yet it's largely thanks to a low hit rate: his BABIP this year is an outrageous .265. Regression would seem to be in the cards for his future. He's a 3.50-4.00 ERA pitcher, not a 2.98 ERA man. He's a lot closer to Ted Lilly than, say, Clayton Kershaw.
What's more, Romero has put on a lot of mileage in the last couple years. There's nothing to suggest that he's about to get injured, but big innings totals have a way of doing that.
I like Romero - he's been a career Jay and it's nice to see him succeed after being labelled as a mistake in the draft. I'm just saying: if the Jays can get the right offer for him, they shouldn't be afraid to sell high. A return, for example, similar to the one they got for Shawn Marcum. I'm not sure they need more position players, which of course narrows your possibilities. They'd need a trading partner who wants to do more of a challenge trade.
Ricky's strikeout-to-walk rate in the past two years has been a hair over 2:1. That's solid, but Ricky has been gaining a reputation as one of the AL's elite. This season, he's had an ERA under 3 much of the time and has put up a lot of innings. Yet it's largely thanks to a low hit rate: his BABIP this year is an outrageous .265. Regression would seem to be in the cards for his future. He's a 3.50-4.00 ERA pitcher, not a 2.98 ERA man. He's a lot closer to Ted Lilly than, say, Clayton Kershaw.
What's more, Romero has put on a lot of mileage in the last couple years. There's nothing to suggest that he's about to get injured, but big innings totals have a way of doing that.
I like Romero - he's been a career Jay and it's nice to see him succeed after being labelled as a mistake in the draft. I'm just saying: if the Jays can get the right offer for him, they shouldn't be afraid to sell high. A return, for example, similar to the one they got for Shawn Marcum. I'm not sure they need more position players, which of course narrows your possibilities. They'd need a trading partner who wants to do more of a challenge trade.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Chris Osgood, Hall of Famer?
Chris Osgood has finally decided to hang up his pads and doff his Cooper player's helmet. After a lengthy career spent mostly in Detroit, he has amassed 401 wins, tenth on the all-time list. Perhaps more notably, he won three Stanley Cups with the Red Wings, two of those as a starter. So of course, the question is being asked: is Chris Osgood a Hall of Famer?
In my mind, he's not close. Osgood has been as great a beneficiary of good teammates as any long-time NHLer. Through 17 career seasons, he was almost always on a winning team. For 14 of those 17 seasons, Nick Lidstrom was playing in front of him.
Let's compare Osgood to Nik Khabibulin, who is right next to him on the career games-played list (743 to Osgood's 744). Khabibulin has posted a better save-percentage over his career - .907 to Osgood's .905. Yet no one would dream to consider Khabibulin an all-time great. He has had some nice seasons, and had a great cup-winning run with Tampa Bay in '02. Even so, though, he has played with bad teams for much of his career. Even with a better save percentage, Khabby's career GAA is 2.72 to Osgood's 2.49. Just 316 wins to Osgood's 401.
Granted, Osgood was consistently excellent in the playoffs, but you know what? His playoff save percentage was lower than Khabibulin's, too. Worse than Dwayne Roloson's; worse than Olaf Kolzig; worse than Patrick Lalime. You need more than great goaltending to win in the playoffs; having Nick Lidstrom, Sergei Fedorov, Steve Yzerman in front of you as well can really help.
In the two years where Osgood won the cup as a starter (96-97 and 97-98), the Wings had five current Hall of Famers in the lineup both years: Yzerman, Lidstrom, Larionov, Larry Murphy, and Slava Fetisov. In addition, they had two sure-fire soon-to-be-elected members: Shanahan and Fedorov. Seven of eighteen skaters in the Hall of Fame. But that's not all; they also featured the reknowned Draper-Maltby-McCarty checking line, and a pile of other quality guys to boot: Tomas Holmstrom, Slava Kozlov, Tim Taylor, Vlad Konstantinov, and Martin Lapointe. This team could have won with pretty much anyone in net.
When he wasn't in Detroit, Osgood spent three 'prime years' on some good teams for the Islanders and Blues. During those years, though, he put up a 2.51 GAA - above his career average, even with Chris Pronger in front of him half that time.
Chris Osgood was never a guy people considered to be the best in the league; he was always overshadowed by the likes of Roy, Hasek, and Brodeur, and rightly so. He is not a Hall-of-Fame goalie. His regular-season and playoff numbers, while obviously not bad, are seriously inflated by the quality of his teammates.
In my mind, he's not close. Osgood has been as great a beneficiary of good teammates as any long-time NHLer. Through 17 career seasons, he was almost always on a winning team. For 14 of those 17 seasons, Nick Lidstrom was playing in front of him.
Let's compare Osgood to Nik Khabibulin, who is right next to him on the career games-played list (743 to Osgood's 744). Khabibulin has posted a better save-percentage over his career - .907 to Osgood's .905. Yet no one would dream to consider Khabibulin an all-time great. He has had some nice seasons, and had a great cup-winning run with Tampa Bay in '02. Even so, though, he has played with bad teams for much of his career. Even with a better save percentage, Khabby's career GAA is 2.72 to Osgood's 2.49. Just 316 wins to Osgood's 401.
Granted, Osgood was consistently excellent in the playoffs, but you know what? His playoff save percentage was lower than Khabibulin's, too. Worse than Dwayne Roloson's; worse than Olaf Kolzig; worse than Patrick Lalime. You need more than great goaltending to win in the playoffs; having Nick Lidstrom, Sergei Fedorov, Steve Yzerman in front of you as well can really help.
In the two years where Osgood won the cup as a starter (96-97 and 97-98), the Wings had five current Hall of Famers in the lineup both years: Yzerman, Lidstrom, Larionov, Larry Murphy, and Slava Fetisov. In addition, they had two sure-fire soon-to-be-elected members: Shanahan and Fedorov. Seven of eighteen skaters in the Hall of Fame. But that's not all; they also featured the reknowned Draper-Maltby-McCarty checking line, and a pile of other quality guys to boot: Tomas Holmstrom, Slava Kozlov, Tim Taylor, Vlad Konstantinov, and Martin Lapointe. This team could have won with pretty much anyone in net.
When he wasn't in Detroit, Osgood spent three 'prime years' on some good teams for the Islanders and Blues. During those years, though, he put up a 2.51 GAA - above his career average, even with Chris Pronger in front of him half that time.
Chris Osgood was never a guy people considered to be the best in the league; he was always overshadowed by the likes of Roy, Hasek, and Brodeur, and rightly so. He is not a Hall-of-Fame goalie. His regular-season and playoff numbers, while obviously not bad, are seriously inflated by the quality of his teammates.
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
Adam Lind, Hall of Famer?
Who is Adam Lind? His career has followed that same two-faced pattern that seems to fit so many Blue Jays hitters. One year, he's hitting .305 with 35 homers and 114 RBI; the next season, he's down to .237/23/32. Here in 2011, he's rebounded in a big way, batting .328 with 15 HR and 45 RBI in just 49 games. He could be in line for his first all-star selection, though the AL is overflowing with star first basemen, so probably not.
Lind broke in with the Jays for a cup of coffee at age 22, then followed that up with half-seasons in 2007 and 2008. At the time, he was regarded as a star prospect, but struggled to produce consistently off the bat. His power was solid, but his batting average and OBP weren't good enough for a left fielder. What's more, he could barely play left field.
Lind is now playing first base, and despite missing some time to injury in the first half of the season, has been raking since coming back off the DL. The question now, of course, is: is this the real Adam Lind?
I'm inclined to think so. No, not the .328 average - I don't think that's a fair expectation. But he can certainly be a guy who hits 35 homers through the rest of his prime years. Lind is just 27 so he could potentially sustain that sort of production for several years.
Where would that get him? As of today, Lind has a whopping 95 career homers. Suppose he can get to 35 this year - that's 115. Figure he stays healthy and averages 35 from ages 28-32; that's five seasons and brings him to 290. If he can average 25/year for four years after that - he's got 390 career homers at age 36.
If you want to make a Hall of Fame home run case without being a regular at a young age, you need to be hitting them out in 50s, like Ryan Howard has. Howard, of course, spent years waiting for Jim Thome to leave Philadelphia, only playing his first full season at age 26. Since then, he's assembled a total of 268 career jacks by age 31 - actually, not far off what we projected for Lind above. I'd say Howard has more pure power and will be able to keep it up a little longer, but 500 home runs will be a long way off for him, too.
This is a story we see again and again - if you want Hall of Fame numbers in the counting numbers, you'd better get started early. As with most players like Lind, the power doesn't really come through until the player has his 'man-strength' in his mid-late 20s. Younger than that, guys like Lind aren't athletic enough to be valuable defensively or hit for enough average to justify a full-time spot.
In a way, then, the 500-homer benchmark for HoF sluggers is about more than pure home runs - it's also a proxy for longevity. Obviously, one side of that is the ability to stay healthy and maintain power into a player's late thirties; on the other hand, it's also about being useful enough in your early twenties to get playing time before your power has fully developed.
Look at Justin Upton, for example. He averaged 19 homers in his first three full seasons - nothing too amazing - you'd want to see more than that from your right fielder in Arizona. But he's also bringing good defence and some stolen bases - enough that the team can play him at a young age. Adam Lind and his ilk can't offer that at a young age despite the fact that they might turn out to be equally productive power hitters in their prime years.
So, there you have it. Hitting 500 home runs is about more than power. It's partly about bringing other skills to the table that get you in the lineup before you're strong enough to hit 30 a year.
Lind broke in with the Jays for a cup of coffee at age 22, then followed that up with half-seasons in 2007 and 2008. At the time, he was regarded as a star prospect, but struggled to produce consistently off the bat. His power was solid, but his batting average and OBP weren't good enough for a left fielder. What's more, he could barely play left field.
Lind is now playing first base, and despite missing some time to injury in the first half of the season, has been raking since coming back off the DL. The question now, of course, is: is this the real Adam Lind?
I'm inclined to think so. No, not the .328 average - I don't think that's a fair expectation. But he can certainly be a guy who hits 35 homers through the rest of his prime years. Lind is just 27 so he could potentially sustain that sort of production for several years.
Where would that get him? As of today, Lind has a whopping 95 career homers. Suppose he can get to 35 this year - that's 115. Figure he stays healthy and averages 35 from ages 28-32; that's five seasons and brings him to 290. If he can average 25/year for four years after that - he's got 390 career homers at age 36.
If you want to make a Hall of Fame home run case without being a regular at a young age, you need to be hitting them out in 50s, like Ryan Howard has. Howard, of course, spent years waiting for Jim Thome to leave Philadelphia, only playing his first full season at age 26. Since then, he's assembled a total of 268 career jacks by age 31 - actually, not far off what we projected for Lind above. I'd say Howard has more pure power and will be able to keep it up a little longer, but 500 home runs will be a long way off for him, too.
This is a story we see again and again - if you want Hall of Fame numbers in the counting numbers, you'd better get started early. As with most players like Lind, the power doesn't really come through until the player has his 'man-strength' in his mid-late 20s. Younger than that, guys like Lind aren't athletic enough to be valuable defensively or hit for enough average to justify a full-time spot.
In a way, then, the 500-homer benchmark for HoF sluggers is about more than pure home runs - it's also a proxy for longevity. Obviously, one side of that is the ability to stay healthy and maintain power into a player's late thirties; on the other hand, it's also about being useful enough in your early twenties to get playing time before your power has fully developed.
Look at Justin Upton, for example. He averaged 19 homers in his first three full seasons - nothing too amazing - you'd want to see more than that from your right fielder in Arizona. But he's also bringing good defence and some stolen bases - enough that the team can play him at a young age. Adam Lind and his ilk can't offer that at a young age despite the fact that they might turn out to be equally productive power hitters in their prime years.
So, there you have it. Hitting 500 home runs is about more than power. It's partly about bringing other skills to the table that get you in the lineup before you're strong enough to hit 30 a year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)