I'm watching the Jays today (May 16, 2011) on Sportsnet, and the theme of the day seems to be 'Jose Bautista, best player in baseball'. After his 3-HR outburst yesterday, Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler are discussing the question of the current 'best player in baseball'. While the easy answer has been Albert Pujols for so much of the last couple years (and yes, there have been an assortment of challengers, but none so consistent as Pujols.
The Elias Sports Bureau, obviously a more objective source than the Jays' broadcast team, has put Bautista at the top of their most recent rankings. Bautista's stats are the best in the majors now, by a wide margin; he leads in runs, homers, walks, average, OBP and SLG. He's an early favourite to start the all-star game and could be headed for another home run crown.
Any mention of 'best player in baseball' inevitably gets me thinking about the much-derided Keltner List, and I'll spare us that examination here. Instead, I'm wondering if there's any realistic possibility at this point that Bautista can build a Hall of Fame career given his advanced age and lack of career totals.
Jose is now 30 years old and yet only has 608 career hits and 129 career HR. What would get him in the discussion? What if Jose manages to be the 'best player in baseball' for a few more years?
Well, then, his best comp could be Dale Murphy. For six seasons from 1982-1987, Murphy won 2 MVPs, finished in the top 10 twice more, and averaged 36 HR. He took a lot of walks and hit for a good average. He won five Gold Gloves. Murphy was at 12.6% in the Hall of Fame vote this year, and will likely hover around that for the foreseeable future. His 398 career HR total isn't blowing anyone away, nor are his 2111 hits. His .265 career average is underwhelming. His career WAR is 44, clearly below the typical HoF cutoff of around 55-60. His best seasons were 6-7 WAR apiece. While Murphy was quite good in those years, he never had a truly historic season. His MVP wins weren't slam dunks and if he hadn't gotten them, his Hall case wouldn't be still alive now.
It would seem like Bautista's 2010 might be better than anything Murphy ever put up (and offensively, it was), but Murphy did it in centre while Bautista merely rates about average in the field. His 2010 WAR total was 5.7. He's at 3.9 already this year, so it's entirely possible that he can get to 'historic season' numbers. What if Jose can end the year at .340/.450/.650 with 60 HR and, say, 130 RBI? Yes, it would be a stretch. Even Pujols would be hard-pressed to keep that pace up. But suppose he does that and follows it up with a couple 40 HR years and remains at least useful into his late 30s. What then?
There's really no precedent for what we're seeing with Jose. To go from utilityman to home run king, without warning, is a strange story.
Why not compare him to Adrian Beltre? Certainly, they're different players, but Beltre's 10-WAR MVP year in 2004 was so far removed from his other performance at the time that noone really knew what to make of it. Even with some good years since, and all the defensive value, he's not really on anyone's HoF map, but maybe he should be. He's only 32 and -surprise- is at 44 career WAR. If he keeps hitting home runs and playing 3rd, maybe he'll get some support from the stats crowd.
Another thing distinguishing Jose is that his performance seems to be a little more concentrated. Yes, it's only been a year and a half, but what if his peak, unlike Beltre's, is sustained and he remains in our consciousness as the league's top slugger for multiple consecutive years?
We can only wait and see. Bautista continues to amaze; I think it's too soon to start guessing at his limitations.
Monday, May 16, 2011
Friday, December 4, 2009
Team Canada 2010 Men's Hockey roster - December 3 update
It's been about a year since we first discussed the best Team Canada lineup in this space...let's see how things look now, shall we?
FORWARDS
Sidney Crosby, C. Sid has been considered a lock all the way and has been nothing but superb this year with 36P in 29 games, good for third in the NHL. He's in.
Joe Thornton, C. Joe was considered a question mark last year as there was some suspicion he was past his prime. Not quite - he's leading the league with 40 points thanks to his new linemate Dany Heatley. While we're on the topic:
Dany Heatley, LW. Heatley had an off-year last season but was still considered a near-lock to make the team as one of the best pure scorers around. Tied for fifth in the league with 33 points, he's in.
Patrick Marleau, C/RW. Getting a little ahead of ourselves? Not quite. Marleau is one of the men tied with Heatley for fifth in scoring. Though he lacks the same track record, Canada's management will recognize the value of keeping this line intact at the Olympics.
Jarome Iginla, RW. Iggy is having another nice year and has 17 goals already for Calgary. Expect him to line up with Crosby on the first line.
Rick Nash, LW. Nash is a good fit to play on the top line with Iginla and Crosby. He has continued to improve this year and could be a dominant force at the Olympic tournament.
Ryan Getzlaf, C. Getzlaf was a force last season and hasn't missed a beat this year. He'll be picked, in large part because Yzerman will want to pair him up with another Canada Juniors alumnus:
Corey Perry, RW. Perry was good in the last couple years - at age 24, he is now awesome. Tied for 5th in league scoring, Corey will be matched up with Getz and:
Steven Stamkos, C/W. Stamkos gets this spot because, as much as it would be nice to pair him with St. Louis and Lecavalier, the other scorers on the roster have been better. Meanwhile, the fourth line needs to be the checking line, if you can call it that:
Mike Richards, C. It hasn't been a pretty season in Philadelphia, but that doesn't change the fact that one of Canada's best two-way forwards needs to be on the roster for line-matching and PK purposes. He'll be on the first unit with teammate:
Jeff Carter, C/W. Carter has been merely good in '09-'10 after scoring at will last season. He'll be there.
Ryan Smyth, LW. His game isn't pretty in any way, but he's off to a nice start and has paid his dues. So long as he comes back from his injury, he's got a claim to be in the starting lineup.
Other possibilities:
Shane Doan, RW: Another solid two-way player who has paid his dues. The only thing keeping him on the outside looking in are his merely good scoring skills. A top choice as injury fill-in.
Martin St. Louis, RW: He would make a nice offensive tandem with Stamkos but doesn't offer much beyond that. He's out.
Jordan Staal, C. PK specialist with legitimate scoring chops to boot. Keep in mind that Canada does have options after Carter and Richards; Nash and Marleau would make a very acceptable second PK unit. He could get into games as a PK-only player.
There are of course a dozen or so others in the conversation. Some players who looked like they had very good chances to make it - Lecavalier, Eric Staal and Toews haven't done enough to justify ranking them in the starting lineup.
DEFENSE
Very little has changed in the D picture. Though several of the challengers for spots have fallen off the pace, the top guys are still there:
Mike Green. The Washington Capital has only cemented his place with a point-a-game pace thus far. He's in, without a doubt.
Dan Boyle. You can't have too many Sharks, it seems. Boyle is an easy pick and would fit right in with the Thornton/Heatley/Marleau unit on the power play.
Duncan Keith. Keith was touted in this space as a probable key Dman on the team. He plays huge minutes in Chicago and is a top-flight defensive player in addition to being a scoring threat.
Chris Pronger. He has aged gracefully and is a lock to make the team. His ability to handle the big stage will be important on what is shaping up as a fairly young D unit.
Scott Niedermayer. I questioned a year ago whether he'd still be playing, let alone worthy of consideration for Canada. Oops. Scott has put up points and big minutes.
Dion Phaneuf. Dion gets the spot on seniority, really. There's several other players worthy of the sixth D spot, but it's his to lose (which he may yet do).
Some alternates:
Shea Weber. Continues to get rave reviews for his all-round game. He's just as good as Phaneuf but lacks the reputation.
Drew Doughty. He's got 21 points already but will be only 20 years old at the tournament. He's got all the talent, but the polish and defense can't be assumed over more experienced guys. Expect him to be a key part of the 2014 team.
Jay Bouwmeester. A good bet to replace injured players so he can be paired with Phaneuf. Not sure who you can bump for him, though. Brent Seabrook has a similar appeal.
There's no lack of depth here, and several of the extra D-Men are complete packages rather than offensive specialists like Brian Campbell. It'll be interesting to see whether the selectors opt for size, experience, scoring or youth.
GOAL
Martin Brodeur. For all the discussion, this guy has put up the best numbers again and again, despite being without a strong defense in front of him this year. He gives peace of mind, which is more than you can ask from any goalie.
Roberto Luongo. He's great. He's just not as good. Sure, he gets hot, but he sure can go cold, too. Give me the guy with the Cup rings instead.
Others: There's been a lot of talk about Marc-Andre Fleury and others...if you ask me, none of them are in the same class as the top two.
FORWARDS
Sidney Crosby, C. Sid has been considered a lock all the way and has been nothing but superb this year with 36P in 29 games, good for third in the NHL. He's in.
Joe Thornton, C. Joe was considered a question mark last year as there was some suspicion he was past his prime. Not quite - he's leading the league with 40 points thanks to his new linemate Dany Heatley. While we're on the topic:
Dany Heatley, LW. Heatley had an off-year last season but was still considered a near-lock to make the team as one of the best pure scorers around. Tied for fifth in the league with 33 points, he's in.
Patrick Marleau, C/RW. Getting a little ahead of ourselves? Not quite. Marleau is one of the men tied with Heatley for fifth in scoring. Though he lacks the same track record, Canada's management will recognize the value of keeping this line intact at the Olympics.
Jarome Iginla, RW. Iggy is having another nice year and has 17 goals already for Calgary. Expect him to line up with Crosby on the first line.
Rick Nash, LW. Nash is a good fit to play on the top line with Iginla and Crosby. He has continued to improve this year and could be a dominant force at the Olympic tournament.
Ryan Getzlaf, C. Getzlaf was a force last season and hasn't missed a beat this year. He'll be picked, in large part because Yzerman will want to pair him up with another Canada Juniors alumnus:
Corey Perry, RW. Perry was good in the last couple years - at age 24, he is now awesome. Tied for 5th in league scoring, Corey will be matched up with Getz and:
Steven Stamkos, C/W. Stamkos gets this spot because, as much as it would be nice to pair him with St. Louis and Lecavalier, the other scorers on the roster have been better. Meanwhile, the fourth line needs to be the checking line, if you can call it that:
Mike Richards, C. It hasn't been a pretty season in Philadelphia, but that doesn't change the fact that one of Canada's best two-way forwards needs to be on the roster for line-matching and PK purposes. He'll be on the first unit with teammate:
Jeff Carter, C/W. Carter has been merely good in '09-'10 after scoring at will last season. He'll be there.
Ryan Smyth, LW. His game isn't pretty in any way, but he's off to a nice start and has paid his dues. So long as he comes back from his injury, he's got a claim to be in the starting lineup.
Other possibilities:
Shane Doan, RW: Another solid two-way player who has paid his dues. The only thing keeping him on the outside looking in are his merely good scoring skills. A top choice as injury fill-in.
Martin St. Louis, RW: He would make a nice offensive tandem with Stamkos but doesn't offer much beyond that. He's out.
Jordan Staal, C. PK specialist with legitimate scoring chops to boot. Keep in mind that Canada does have options after Carter and Richards; Nash and Marleau would make a very acceptable second PK unit. He could get into games as a PK-only player.
There are of course a dozen or so others in the conversation. Some players who looked like they had very good chances to make it - Lecavalier, Eric Staal and Toews haven't done enough to justify ranking them in the starting lineup.
DEFENSE
Very little has changed in the D picture. Though several of the challengers for spots have fallen off the pace, the top guys are still there:
Mike Green. The Washington Capital has only cemented his place with a point-a-game pace thus far. He's in, without a doubt.
Dan Boyle. You can't have too many Sharks, it seems. Boyle is an easy pick and would fit right in with the Thornton/Heatley/Marleau unit on the power play.
Duncan Keith. Keith was touted in this space as a probable key Dman on the team. He plays huge minutes in Chicago and is a top-flight defensive player in addition to being a scoring threat.
Chris Pronger. He has aged gracefully and is a lock to make the team. His ability to handle the big stage will be important on what is shaping up as a fairly young D unit.
Scott Niedermayer. I questioned a year ago whether he'd still be playing, let alone worthy of consideration for Canada. Oops. Scott has put up points and big minutes.
Dion Phaneuf. Dion gets the spot on seniority, really. There's several other players worthy of the sixth D spot, but it's his to lose (which he may yet do).
Some alternates:
Shea Weber. Continues to get rave reviews for his all-round game. He's just as good as Phaneuf but lacks the reputation.
Drew Doughty. He's got 21 points already but will be only 20 years old at the tournament. He's got all the talent, but the polish and defense can't be assumed over more experienced guys. Expect him to be a key part of the 2014 team.
Jay Bouwmeester. A good bet to replace injured players so he can be paired with Phaneuf. Not sure who you can bump for him, though. Brent Seabrook has a similar appeal.
There's no lack of depth here, and several of the extra D-Men are complete packages rather than offensive specialists like Brian Campbell. It'll be interesting to see whether the selectors opt for size, experience, scoring or youth.
GOAL
Martin Brodeur. For all the discussion, this guy has put up the best numbers again and again, despite being without a strong defense in front of him this year. He gives peace of mind, which is more than you can ask from any goalie.
Roberto Luongo. He's great. He's just not as good. Sure, he gets hot, but he sure can go cold, too. Give me the guy with the Cup rings instead.
Others: There's been a lot of talk about Marc-Andre Fleury and others...if you ask me, none of them are in the same class as the top two.
Friday, November 27, 2009
HOF Watch: Roy Oswalt
There's a fair bit of debate about the demise of the 300-win pitcher these days. With the 5-man rotation, teams keeping star youngsters down on the farm to hold back their arbitration clocks, and the constant risk of injury, it's hard to project any young pitcher today to reach the 300-win plateau.
Let's take a look at Roy Oswalt. Roy is 32, with a career record of 137-70 and career 3.23 ERA. Oswalt has two 20-win seasons to his name, and has 30-plus starts for six straight years. He obviously has a ways to go before he's in the discussion for 300; let's be optimistic and assume Roy can average 15 wins a season for the next 6 years. That would bring him to just 227 wins at age 38. The simple truth is that even top pitchers like Oswalt need to pitch past age 40 to have a decent chance of 300 wins. As a smaller guy, Oswalt doesn't have the size we tend to associate with the 40-year-old pitcher. There's a worry that his velocity won't keep up at such an advanced age.
Nevertheless, Oswalt has a good shot to be in the Hall. He's yet to win a Cy, but has been in the top 5 vote-getters five times. His .662 w/l % is third-best among active pitchers, ahead of Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and many other potential inductees. Even if Roy goes 90-80 for the rest of his career, he'll still finish ahead of Glavine and Smoltz.
The 20-win seasons are another point in his favor. As they become increasingly rare, they're of course more notable which means more opportunities for writers to point out to everyone just how special Roy is. With one or two more superlative seasons, Oswalt can complete the sort of resume necessary to convince Hall voters. At this point, a Cy Young would probably cement his case, though that's tough when you pitch in the same league as Lincecum and Santana.
Oswalt is coming off his worst year in the majors. Back problems cost him starts as the summer progressed and the Astros shut him down in mid-September. Under contract for at least two more years, the Astros may handle him carefully in 2010. The Astros, also, aren't likely to be a competitive team in 2010. They've got several holes to fill in their lineup and their bullpen is lacking, so Oswalt may have a hard time getting 20 wins no matter how well he pitches. The 2009 season did serious damage to Oswalt's Hall chances, between only getting 8 wins, the back injury, and the continued stagnation of the Astros. Furthermore, Oswalt's outings have been getting consistently shorter- he fell from 6.5 innings/start in 2008 to 6.0 in 2009. It's much harder for a six-inning pitcher to rack up wins. It's easy to imagine Roy only averaging 12 wins a year from now on even if he can maintain a 3.30 ERA.
2010 will be a key year for Oswalt. If he can bounce back to the 200-inning level, I like his chances to continue piling up wins. He'll be an interesting one to watch. We'll revisit his HOF case next year.
Let's take a look at Roy Oswalt. Roy is 32, with a career record of 137-70 and career 3.23 ERA. Oswalt has two 20-win seasons to his name, and has 30-plus starts for six straight years. He obviously has a ways to go before he's in the discussion for 300; let's be optimistic and assume Roy can average 15 wins a season for the next 6 years. That would bring him to just 227 wins at age 38. The simple truth is that even top pitchers like Oswalt need to pitch past age 40 to have a decent chance of 300 wins. As a smaller guy, Oswalt doesn't have the size we tend to associate with the 40-year-old pitcher. There's a worry that his velocity won't keep up at such an advanced age.
Nevertheless, Oswalt has a good shot to be in the Hall. He's yet to win a Cy, but has been in the top 5 vote-getters five times. His .662 w/l % is third-best among active pitchers, ahead of Roy Halladay, C.C. Sabathia, Randy Johnson, Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and many other potential inductees. Even if Roy goes 90-80 for the rest of his career, he'll still finish ahead of Glavine and Smoltz.
The 20-win seasons are another point in his favor. As they become increasingly rare, they're of course more notable which means more opportunities for writers to point out to everyone just how special Roy is. With one or two more superlative seasons, Oswalt can complete the sort of resume necessary to convince Hall voters. At this point, a Cy Young would probably cement his case, though that's tough when you pitch in the same league as Lincecum and Santana.
Oswalt is coming off his worst year in the majors. Back problems cost him starts as the summer progressed and the Astros shut him down in mid-September. Under contract for at least two more years, the Astros may handle him carefully in 2010. The Astros, also, aren't likely to be a competitive team in 2010. They've got several holes to fill in their lineup and their bullpen is lacking, so Oswalt may have a hard time getting 20 wins no matter how well he pitches. The 2009 season did serious damage to Oswalt's Hall chances, between only getting 8 wins, the back injury, and the continued stagnation of the Astros. Furthermore, Oswalt's outings have been getting consistently shorter- he fell from 6.5 innings/start in 2008 to 6.0 in 2009. It's much harder for a six-inning pitcher to rack up wins. It's easy to imagine Roy only averaging 12 wins a year from now on even if he can maintain a 3.30 ERA.
2010 will be a key year for Oswalt. If he can bounce back to the 200-inning level, I like his chances to continue piling up wins. He'll be an interesting one to watch. We'll revisit his HOF case next year.
HOF Watch: Pat Hentgen
Pat Hentgen was a beloved longtime Blue Jay in the '90s and will have his first-and possibly only-year on the HOF ballot this year.
Hentgen had some great moments- after spending part of 1992 in the Toronto bullpen, he joined the starting rotation for good in 1993 and went 19-9 with a 3.87 ERA. He added a win in Game 3 of the World Series as the Jays beat the Phillies. In 1996, he went 20-10 with a 3.22 ERA en route to the AL Cy Young.
For the rest of his career, though, Hentgen was consistently average. Pat had four more seasons as a rotation workhorse but never regained the heights of 1996. An arm injury in 2001 brought his age-32 year to a sudden halt and he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound by the end of 2002 and he had one last decent year in 2003 at the age of 34 as he went 7-8 with a 4.09 ERA. Hentgen returned to Toronto for one final year but went a disappointing 2-9.
Hentgen's final career line was 131-112 with a 4.32 ERA. His career was a good one but falls well short of Hall of Fame standards. He does have some credentials-particularly the CY and the Series ring but also 3 all-star appearances- that may earn him a few votes if Toronto writers want to give him a tribute on the ballot. He's almost certain to fall off the ballot right away.
Hentgen, like so many other pitchers, had flashes of greatness but couldn't dodge the injuries that ended his career. Even without the injuries, though, Hentgen's days were always numbered: he only struck out 5.6 batters per nine against 3.4 BB/9. With middling stuff, Hentgen had to be aggressive and rely on his stuff- a quality that perhaps rubbed off on a young Roy Halladay, whose first year as a Jay was also Hentgen's last before the trade that sent him to St. Louis. Hentgen's aggressiveness allowed him to rack up big innings totals as he led the majors in innings in both 1996 and 1997.
Though he won't be a hall of famer, Pat will be fondly remembered by Jays fans as a key cog in the 1993 World Series and for always taking his turn on the mound as his career progressed. Thanks for the memories, Pat!
Hentgen had some great moments- after spending part of 1992 in the Toronto bullpen, he joined the starting rotation for good in 1993 and went 19-9 with a 3.87 ERA. He added a win in Game 3 of the World Series as the Jays beat the Phillies. In 1996, he went 20-10 with a 3.22 ERA en route to the AL Cy Young.
For the rest of his career, though, Hentgen was consistently average. Pat had four more seasons as a rotation workhorse but never regained the heights of 1996. An arm injury in 2001 brought his age-32 year to a sudden halt and he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery. He was back on the mound by the end of 2002 and he had one last decent year in 2003 at the age of 34 as he went 7-8 with a 4.09 ERA. Hentgen returned to Toronto for one final year but went a disappointing 2-9.
Hentgen's final career line was 131-112 with a 4.32 ERA. His career was a good one but falls well short of Hall of Fame standards. He does have some credentials-particularly the CY and the Series ring but also 3 all-star appearances- that may earn him a few votes if Toronto writers want to give him a tribute on the ballot. He's almost certain to fall off the ballot right away.
Hentgen, like so many other pitchers, had flashes of greatness but couldn't dodge the injuries that ended his career. Even without the injuries, though, Hentgen's days were always numbered: he only struck out 5.6 batters per nine against 3.4 BB/9. With middling stuff, Hentgen had to be aggressive and rely on his stuff- a quality that perhaps rubbed off on a young Roy Halladay, whose first year as a Jay was also Hentgen's last before the trade that sent him to St. Louis. Hentgen's aggressiveness allowed him to rack up big innings totals as he led the majors in innings in both 1996 and 1997.
Though he won't be a hall of famer, Pat will be fondly remembered by Jays fans as a key cog in the 1993 World Series and for always taking his turn on the mound as his career progressed. Thanks for the memories, Pat!
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